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Trump Middle East Policy - Impact of Palestinian Refugees on Regional Stability: Analysis and Recommendations

Writer's picture: DSRM-1DSRM-1

Date: January 26, 2025

Gaza Refugees
Gaza Refugees

Executive Summary of Trump's Policy Outcome

This report examines the historical and ongoing challenges posed by the presence of Palestinian refugees in the Middle East, focusing on their impact on Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon. It analyses key political, social, and security concerns arising from the refugee issue and provides recommendations for mitigating potential risks while fostering regional stability.

This analysis is motivated by recent developments, with President Trump advocating for Palestinians to be relocated from Gaza to housing in Egypt and Jordan during the rebuilding of Gaza. While this proposal is not without merit, it carries significant risks that demand careful consideration.

1. Historical Context

The displacement of Palestinians began in 1948 following the establishment of Israel, with subsequent conflicts, including the Six-Day War in 1967, exacerbating the refugee crisis.


The Six-Day War: 1967
The Six-Day War: 1967

Over the decades, millions of Palestinians have settled in neighbouring countries, often in precarious conditions and with limited rights. The resulting demographic, political, and security challenges have shaped regional dynamics in profound ways.


2. Country-Specific Analysis

2.1 Jordan

  • Integration and Demographic Pressures: Jordan hosts the largest number of Palestinian refugees, with many granted citizenship. However, their presence has caused demographic shifts and strained national resources, including housing, water, and jobs.

  • Political Tensions: Palestinian factions have clashed with the Jordanian government historically, most notably during the 1970 "Black September" conflict, where armed Palestinian groups challenged Jordan’s sovereignty. Additionally, the assassination of Jordanian Prime Minister Wasfi al-Tal in 1971 by Palestinian militants exemplifies the risks posed by extremist elements within the refugee population.

    Black September - 1971
    Black September - 1971
  • Current Issues: Ongoing economic struggles and refugee camps remain flashpoints for unrest.

2.2 Egypt

  • Restricted Settlement: Egypt has historically limited the settlement of Palestinian refugees, citing security and economic concerns.

    Egypt - Gaza Wall
    Egypt - Gaza Wall

  • Political Sensitivities: Egyptian authorities have avoided granting permanent residence to avoid altering domestic politics or becoming a permanent host country.

  • Potential Risks: Should Egypt increase its Palestinian refugee population, the country risks replicating Lebanon’s challenges, including heightened tensions and clashes between host governments and militant factions.


Of particular concern is the possibility of Egypt placing refugees in camps in the Sinai region. This area has long been a hotspot for extremist activity, including ongoing operations by ISIS. The placement of angry and displaced Palestinian men, many of whom have lost families and livelihoods in the Gaza conflict, in these camps presents a high risk of radicalisation and recruitment by ISIS.


Isis i the Sinai
Isis i the Sinai

The region’s vacuous governance and existing militant infrastructure echo the conditions seen in Syria, where ISIS has regained strength in ungoverned areas. This scenario could further destabilise Egypt and the broader region.

2.3 Lebanon

  • Historical Context: Lebanon has hosted a substantial number of Palestinian refugees since 1948. Confined to camps with limited rights, Palestinians have been marginalised both socially and economically. This exclusion has fuelled resentment and unrest.

  • Militarisation and Conflict: During the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990), Palestinian factions, particularly the PLO, became heavily involved in the conflict, challenging Lebanese sovereignty and contributing to widespread violence. The 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon was partly aimed at dismantling PLO strongholds.

    Yasser Arafat - PLO Leader - Lebanon - 1970s
    Yasser Arafat - PLO Leader - Lebanon - 1970s

  • Role of Hezbollah: While Hezbollah has demonstrated solidarity with Palestinian factions, particularly during conflicts with Israel, it has not actively sought to integrate Palestinian refugees into Lebanese society. Instead, the group has focused on maintaining its own political and military dominance, leaving the refugees in a state of perpetual marginalisation.

3. Key Patterns and Implications

3.1 Resource Strain

The influx of refugees has placed immense pressure on host countries’ infrastructure, including housing, healthcare, education, and water resources. This has fuelled local resentment and social tensions.

3.2 Political Instability

The presence of refugees has often exacerbated internal divisions, with factions using refugee camps as bases for political or military activities. Host governments have frequently viewed this as a threat to national security.

3.3 Marginalisation of Refugees

Palestinian refugees remain one of the most marginalised groups globally, with limited access to rights and opportunities. This exclusion perpetuates cycles of poverty and unrest.

3.4 Motivations for Radicalisation

A significant motivating factor for individuals joining terror groups is anger at their own situations. Many Palestinian men, displaced by the Gaza conflict and grieving the loss of their families, harbour deep resentment. While some may blame Hamas for the destruction, many have been indoctrinated since childhood to view Israel and the West as their enemies. This mindset creates fertile ground for extremist recruitment, particularly in areas where governance is weak or non-existent.

3.5 Risks from Specific Groups in Egypt

Terror Groups:
  • ISIS (Islamic State): Active in Sinai, ISIS is the most likely group to exploit displaced Palestinians, using their anger and trauma as recruitment tools. Potential activities include insurgent operations, attacks on Egyptian security forces, and cross-border raids into Israel. Threat Level: High

  • Hasm Movement: With roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, Hasm could target infrastructure or state institutions, potentially using Palestinian recruits for its goals. Threat Level: Moderate

  • Al-Qaeda: Though less prominent than ISIS in Egypt, Al-Qaeda’s ideology may resonate with disillusioned refugees, particularly if they seek an alternative to Hamas. Threat Level: Moderate

  • Egyptian Islamic Jihad: Historically significant, this group could resurface if conditions align, leveraging refugee discontent to rebuild networks. Threat Level: Low

  • Al-Mourabitoun: While less active, this faction’s operational focus on North Africa suggests a potential role in smuggling or facilitating terror activities involving refugees. Threat Level: Low

Activist and Campaign Groups:
  • April 6 Youth Movement: Though primarily non-violent, this group’s ability to mobilise dissent could intersect with refugee grievances, leading to unrest. Risk Level: Low

  • Muslim Brotherhood: Historically influential, the Brotherhood could exploit refugee anger to undermine the Egyptian government, using Palestinians in protests or propaganda. Risk Level: Moderate

  • Socialist Popular Alliance Party & Revolutionary Socialists: Leftist groups may advocate for refugee rights, potentially clashing with state authorities or aligning with broader opposition movements. Risk Level: Low

  • Tamarod (Rebellion) Movement: Although less active, this group’s history of mobilisation suggests it could rally support around refugee-related issues, exacerbating tensions. Risk Level: Low

4. Recommendations

4.1 For Host Countries

  • Enhance Integration Efforts: Provide greater access to education, employment, and public services to reduce marginalisation.

  • Strengthen Security in Camps: Implement measures to prevent the militarisation of refugee camps and improve local policing.

  • Avoid High-Risk Placement: Refrain from placing refugee camps in areas prone to extremist activity, such as the Sinai Peninsula.

4.2 For the International Community

  • Increased Funding: While supporting UNRWA is critical, it must be predicated on a thorough overhaul of the organisation to ensure it is not complicit in supporting groups like Hamas. Past associations between UNRWA and Hamas have raised significant concerns, necessitating a complete cleansing of its structure before any further funding or involvement.

  • Encourage Resettlement Programmes: Promote voluntary resettlement initiatives to alleviate pressure on host countries.

  • Diplomatic Engagement: Work towards a long-term resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to address the root cause of displacement.

5. Conclusion

The Palestinian refugee crisis remains a significant challenge for regional stability in the Middle East. Host countries and the international community must adopt comprehensive strategies to address the immediate humanitarian needs of refugees while mitigating the long-term risks of political and social unrest.


Special attention should be given to preventing radicalisation in high-risk areas, particularly in Egypt’s Sinai region, to avoid exacerbating existing security threats.

Anthony Hegarty MSc DSRM Risk & Crisis Management


Anthony Hegarty MSc - DSRM Risk & Crisis Management
Anthony Hegarty MSc - DSRM Risk & Crisis Management

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